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The power of a master mind for decision-making: an example

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Having a group of people to bounce off ideas can be a tremendous source of empowerment.

It can help you in two important ways:

  • Refine your ideas (feedback, people's experience on it, new takes you hadn't thought of, plus each member can build upon each other's idea, opening the discussion to possibilities no single member would have thought of on their own)
  • Reach better decisions (based on idea-refinement, you will likely reach far better decisions)

I will share here a recent story that made me realize how crucial a master-mind can be in life.

Strategizing for Coronavirus: The Digital Master Mind

Some months back, at the height of the Coronavirus pandemic sweeping through the world, I was stuck in Cebu, in The Philippines.

Countries were locking their borders, airlines were canceling flights, and governments were introducing series of stricter and stricter lockdowns.

The news was all heavily biased on the negative, of course, but I wanted to make a fear-free decision.

One of the risks of the pandemic was the healthcare system getting swamped by too many patients at the same time.
The Philippines don't have the best and largest healthcare system in the world, and had very few Intensive Care Units (ICU).
I was pretty sure the system was going to get swamped once the contagion curve started going up. That meant that at the height of the pandemic, if you needed medical help, you were likely not going to get any.

The risks of needing medical help were still small / very small, but it was a possibility I had to consider.

Dying Is OK... Once You Took Precautionary Steps

My philosophy on death is that it's part of life.

And my philosophy on early death, such as death not-for old age, is that it's not ideal, but it's OK.
BUT, with a BIG caveat.
This is it:

Dying early is OK.
But not when you die early because you were a lazy fuck.

Not being a lazy cunt, for me, meant to get all the information I could, and then reach a rational decision.

Once you have gathered all the critical information and committed to a course of action that you well thought-through, then you can chill because you've done your job (ie.: you weren't being a lazy fuck).

So during those days I was researching and strategizing to come up with the best / most rational strategy on what to do.
I was:

  • Calling local hospitals to ask if they had free rooms (and how many): only one, the biggest, picked up the phone (not good). They had free rooms, but couldn't share how many were free. One day they only had 2 free rooms though, out of 400+ beds. That meant it was already close to being swamped
  • How many ICU beds they had: couldn't share the information (but online sources said there were very few in the Philippines)
  • If they were projecting getting full any time soon: the operator had no idea (doesn't inspire trust, but not necessarily a bad thing, it just meant the operator was clueless, which makes sense: you don't put your best and most well-informed people picking up phones :)
  • Inquiring about procedure for corona-patients: they had very little information, jut kept repeating "come to ER". Not necessarily a bad thing
  • Researching other countries & options:
    • countries with a still open-border
    • countries' local healthcare system
    • countries' own spread of Covid-19, plus how their curve looked like

I wanted second opinions and inputs, so I was often calling home to bounce off ideas with my parents.
But I soon realized there were major limitations to it:

  • Parents are very risk-averse: they tend to tell you to go for the safest possible option, even if the risks are very small, or if the risks of second or third-safest option are almost the same
  • My parents have little international know-how: to them, "Europe / the West is safe, all the rest, you better avoid" (very common thinking in the West :) )
  • My parents read headlines, with little critical thinking: little to add here, this is common to people in general

Then I started asking myself this question:

Where can I find some intelligent folks to get some good inputs on this?

This should be a reminder of the power of asking great questions, by the way.

And it finally dawned on me:

ThePowerMoves.com subscribers!
A group intelligent and driven folks, who seek to maximize their lives, tend to be critical-thinker, and without being too risk-averse. Plus, they are geographically spread all over the world.
Perfect.

So I did what I had never done before: send out an email to ask for input.
First of all, thank you SO much to all the subscribers.
The replies poured in, and the screen wasn't enough to fit them all, not even at reduced font-size:

brainstorming with thepowermoves subscribers

It was truly touching to receive so much great input.
You have no idea how helpful you have been to me, and I am deeply thankful and grateful. Both from a human point of view, and from a more rational, decision-making point of view.

In the next post, I will share some of these answers, and how they helped me to strategize better.

 

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Stef
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  • Answer 1: consider your personal risks (which are probably low)

Hello Lucio,

Greetings from semi-lockdown in Copenhagen, Denmark :)

I think one the most important questions to ask yourself is: How do you feel about your health and immune system?

Here in Scandinavia, I know a few young (under 40), healthy people who have already had the virus and they said it was like a flu (and not even a bad one). Of course, we know the virus effects everyone differently.

Still, this is a key point for you to think about. If you have a compromised immune system, please consider leaving the Philippines and head for a country with a better healthcare system.

Great, great point.

I thought of how often I got sick in the last few years: never.
Or, to be more accurate: at most a cold or a sore throat that never stopped me from doing what I wanted or had to do.

This was a powerful reminder that the risks were small even if I had caught the virus.

Still, as C also pointed out, not zero risks.
The virus can affect people differently, also depending on who you got it from, and which strain you caught.
So there was an element of uncertainty.


Thank you so much, C.!

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  • Answer 2: from a local Philippino

If I were in your position, I'd go with option 3. Go to Japan, since it's the quickest way out if you'll leave by the 23rd.

We're already in lockdown here in Quezon City. I'm not sure about Cebu, though. But it's not the virus that's the concern. People are getting hungry because of the lockdown. News on people looting and going inside other people's houses is already circling. Hopefully, the situation isn't like that in Cebu.

In Japan, people are disciplined, so I think it's a lot safer. You can recover from the virus, anyway.

Just in case you can't go to Japan, Option 1, a condo unit with a grocery inside the building would be my next bet.

Genius answer.

Fielding an option I hadn't even considered: social unrest.

When I called my parents, they were laughing at the news of people in the US who were stocking on guns and ammunition.

My parents hadn't even connected the ammunition-stocking to social unrest. They said, "what are you gonna do, shoot at the virus?".
Typical Europeans who are used to stronger social safety nets :) (and especially so in rural areas, where everyone knows each other).

But it was something to keep in mind indeed.
Especially if the lockdown had to go on for longer and started wrecking economies, it was a risk to consider. And as a white foreigner, you could become a bigger target.

Also genius advice to pick a condo with a grocery store inside the building.


Thank you so much, F.!

 

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  • Answer 3: a local perspective on Tokyo / Japan (Japan was one of the top 3 options I was considering)

I live in Japan not far from ****, and the denial mindset here is REAL.

It's terrifying. I'm sure things are way worse here than they want to admit, and the healthcare system is not that great either.
Especially when dealing with foreigners, who medical professionals tend to dismiss and ignore in normal times, let alone in crisis time like now. 

I'm grateful to have never been sick while living here, because I'm truly afraid of the Japanese medical system after the countless horror stories I have read, especially medical stories from other women. I'm ******, so universal healthcare and being treated fairly and well by the medical system is a value I hold dear to my heart. 

I can assure you that foreigners will be treated last (if at all) if anything COVID-19-related were to happen. Don't risk it.

Personally, I'd stay in the Phillippines then go to SK. SK has flattened the curve, it's super cheap to stay there and it's a much more fun place to be than Japan. I'd skip Japan entirely if I were you.

A perspective I hadn't considered at all: that insular -and let's call it as it is: somewhat racist- cultures might treat people not depending on severity, but depending on skin / where they're from.

Plus, the language barrier, which in Japan is huge, and probably bigger than Korea.
Plus the economical side of the decision, which was not top priority, but something to consider nonethless.

This answer convinced me that Japan was not the best option for long-term, but it was still an option as a fly-over before getting to Korea.


Thank you, C.!

 

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  • Answer 4: go where you are most empowered (move in a way that lets you control the variables best, and focus on covering your biggest downside risks)

In the stock market, you hear a lot about it being a "high-risk high reward" game.

However, Robert Kiyosaki recommends only taking on manageable risk. I find that this strategy of not taking on more risk than you're capable of managing also applies to life. You said it best, we are in a fast-changing environment and the risk of Korea closing its borders isn't a risk you can manage because it's not up to you, it's up to the environment and Korea. Therefore, in your shoes, I would go a different route rather than putting all my eggs in a basket I don't own. 

Now, as far as Tokyo, I believe that the pillars to the good life are health, wealth, love and happiness and that health should always come first. Therefore, I think the pros would be worth the hefty investment if it would keep you safe. (As the old saying goes, better safe than sorry.) 

The big decision maker for me here is based on one of your power moves values, "You're only as free as your mental and personal power allow you to be."
Which location you'd be most free from health risks staying in would really depend on your level of personal power.
In the event something went wrong while you were in the Philippines, if you have the power to call a doctor and fly him in from the United States (or something to that effect) then the Philippines would be your best bet. If, however, you aren't too confident in your power to cover any downsides that come with staying in the Philippines or would be too limited to come up with a quick exit strategy if things went south, then I would suggest option three, Tokyo.

This answer hit me like a brick wall.

It was no obvious: staying in the Philippines meant I had little or no control over the downside risks.

Like Ali reminded me:

  • If I got sick and required medical attention, I didn't have the power to get treatment. I didn't control that.

I didn't have the power of getting medical help if things went south, so I was not covering my downsides at all by staying.

But also:

  • If the Philippines decided I couldn't leave the house for 6 months, I'd be forced to lock myself in for 6 months. I didn't control that.

And the Philppines did indeed turn out to be one of the countries with the longest lockdown period, and freedom of movement is still severely limited to this day as I'm writing.

My personal power was severely limited staying in the Philippines.
The decision was made.

But there was one more eye-opening email (see the next one).


Thank you, Ali!

An enlightening input.

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  • Answer 5: go where you're happiest (so simple, yet so genius)

No matter where on the planet you go, outbreaks are possible and the prospect of swamped hospitals apply everywhere.

In Oregon, they've set up a care facility on fairgrounds to handle the numerous cases. (...)
If you're not happy there, go where you think you'd be happiest, keeping in mind that grass will grow green where you water it.

Enlightening answer.

Philosophical, and practical at the same time.

"Happiness" when making "rational decisions" seems to be scoffed at.
Yet, this answer reminded me that it's nonsense to completely ditch what makes us happy when we are making decisions for our whole selves.
And our whole selves include "what makes us feel good and content".

Warren Buffet Agrees on Contentedness for Decision Making

Think of Warren Buffet, considered one of the best -and most rational- investors ever.

When asked why he keeps so much cash at hand, he once replied, "it makes me sleep good at night".

And he said:

I will not trade a night's sleep for the chance of extra profit

Buffet foregoes some potential gain for personal contentedness.

M. answer helped me to bring up those emotional-side issues that bothered me: the risks outside of my control however small, made me unhappy. And the incertitude of the lockdown's length made me unhappy.
Why should I ignore that when I could at least try to address it?


Thank you, M.!

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So this is what I realized, in the end:

When there is a lack of data, it makes sense to choose based on covering your downsides (which are partly unknown) and on what makes you happier (and there is often an overlap between the two).

In hindsight, moving country for a small risk could have been overly cautious.
But "overly cautious" had little costs, mostly financial, and made me happy. So it made total sense to try to leave (covering the downsides) and reaching SK (which made me happier).

But notice that all of this only became clear after the inputs I received (and these are only a handful of super-helpful replies).
This experience further showed me that a mastermind, or a group of smart folks with whom to bounce off ideas, is truly a crucial tool for an empowered life.


To End With A Smile

This was a long post, with lots of deep thoughts and inputs.

That doesn't mean that masterminds must necessarily be super serious.
This is how a freind of mine weighed in on risk-assessment:

Masterminds do not have to be stodgy and hyper-serious to be helpful :) 

 

Stef has reacted to this post.
Stef
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Another great post Lucio, as usual.
We could refer to what your subscribers gave as “Meta-perspective”.

Every single individual has their views on this specific topic and will provide their point of view.
All this concentrated in your mind, as you now had access to many individuals’ perspectives and your own point of view got elevated basically on a meta-level.
This seems especially effective if the individuals providing their view are high-value, as in critical thinkers and very intelligent, which is expected to apply to people subscribed to your content.

For everyone who hasn’t access to such an opportunity, there is a poor-mans-version of it.
You’ll likely be aware of reddit.com, and it is in most cases not very helpful or insightfull especially in the mainstream subs.
But this reverses for smaller communities and specific cases, because the very set-up of the site can in many cases provide a sort of interesting Meta-perspective too.

To give some examples that you can go through quickly:

A serious one “People who are 40+ and happy with their life, what is your advice to people in their 20s?”
https://old.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/ghmr3e/people_who_are_40_and_happy_with_their_life_what/

A creative/fun one “You’re in a public bathroom, someone tries to open the door, what do you say to make the situation super awkward?”
https://old.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/gq1mvc/youre_in_a_public_bathroom_someone_tries_to_open/

And another creative/fun one “Your best friend is faking being asleep and you need them up. What do you say out loud to trick them into "waking up"?” https://old.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/fie8qz/your_best_friend_is_faking_being_asleep_and_you/

I’m convinced that this type of thinking is something you can actually increase for yourself with exposure and training, and it can be much fun too, as the links above show. I assume the specific topic doesn’t even matter that much – as long as it is interesting or fun for you.

A follow-up idea: Since your subscribers seemed to like to chime in, maybe we could establish a specific topic every few days or once a month.
Something like “Topic of the month: what would you do in this situation […]”.
Maybe even 2 different categories like a serious one and a creative one, but more adapted to thepowermoves.com main topics than the linked examples of course :)

If you agree, please let’s make this happen, because it sounds totally fun while likely being very insightfull for everyone.
It could bring us all more a little feeling of community and exchange of likeminded people, that feels like it’s missing now.
But of course, this is your project Lucio, and in case you don’t like it - no problem.

Lucio Buffalmano has reacted to this post.
Lucio Buffalmano

Cheers, R.!

Yeah, I agree with you, it's super helpful.
And I agree it can possibly be increased, albeit that might also be dangerous if you start thinking that you don't need any outside input.

Topic of The Month Idea (Eureka!)

Man, I love that idea.

What had you originally thought as potential topics and structure?

As you mentioned it, I started thinking of coming up with short case studies like difficult (social) situations, and how one could maneuver and strategize to achieve a certain goal (potentially, it might also be a real-life situation or a question asked on these forums).

Everyone would chip in with their own thoughts and strategy, and then ideally come up with a good final plan that takes something from the best-proposed ones.

 

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You have an attention to detail I see ;)

Quote from Lucio Buffalmano on June 20, 2020, 6:11 pm
And I agree it can possibly be increased, albeit that might also be dangerous if you start thinking that you don't need any outside input.

Yes, I used to think that sometimes and its a danger for sure, very important to be aware of this.


Now the topic of the month idea, I’m not sure about the best way, there are many possibilities, but having several categories could help testing which gets most traction and also cover different topics and different lenghts (roughly one liners* vs short text).

*if the answer is bound to be very short, it might make sense to encourage several answers (– or not to, so they can only contribute the very best idea of them).

Regarding the topics itself I think what you proposed sounds good. I like strategies especially as they are a great fit, a little more complex and I haven’t seen such a thing covered anywhere else.

I hope I’m not projecting too much here, but I like your quizzes so much and having a short scene from a movie or real-life situation could be very interesting too.

A good setup would probably be to link to the video/text, and briefly highlight why this scene/text is difficult or interesting and then ask for peoples contribution.

An example could be:

Topic of the month june in the category short and witty
The “I know the manager”-scene from SATC:
A and B are in a cloth-store and realize they both want the last piece of some rare cloth.
A:”I know Taekwondo.”
B:”I know the manager.”B takes the fighting part of A’s frame and one-ups’ it to a way superiour level.

Bs’ answer was genius, but most of the times in real life you wont know the manager of a store. 
What could have been other effective answers that lead to a similiar outcome?
Up to 3 contributions per post, and one post per user.

Or another example for short ones:

Topic of the month june in the category beating bullies
It’s warm outside, people are everywhere. You have a tight schedule and need to catch a specific tram. 
To do so you have to run the last 300mwhen a stranger 20m away from you in a (mixed-gender) group sees you 
and shouts “Ruuun, Forest ruuun!” in your direction. 
What could you do or say in this situation?
(My take: And they still won’t fuck you bully.”)

After a specific time has passed you would then nominate the winners of possibly several categories: f.e. -the most effective-, -the most impressive reframe-, -the most creative-, etc.Something along these lines could be great, and maybe even give out little digital prizes/awards for the winner of a specific category (especially at the beginning to motivate people even more and get it kick-started – though that could tamper with intrensic motivation, so not sure).

And things that are harder to judge like creativity might also get a small poll to let everyone decide (or one could just encourage likes on the post). A poll could also work for the possible topics for the next month.

After the time has passed, you would post your decision/solution and a short explanation. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that you can’t take also part in it, it will likely propose a challenge in itselfto be even more creative than Lucio” etc, and rise the level from early on.

A new forum section for it would be a good idea, at the top would be the the current topic(s), then with time older threads of former topics of the month (after everything is decided they can be closed), and then an additional ideas/feedback/improvement thread for this section might help too (the relevant parts of our posts here could be moved there).

Another idea might be a thread there for fitting material or topic suggestions together with a few guidelines at the top of what you are looking for and the requirement of a short explanation of every contributer why this specific video f.e. would be a great fit.

That’s my take on it.

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Lucio Buffalmano
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