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Why Israel's Strategy Failed: Cooperation Was Undermining Hamas
Disclaimer:
I'm no expert, have spent little time researching the events, and this is just speculation.
According to this good video analysis:
- Israel was pursuing a policy of higher cooperation and lifting restrictions with Palestinians/Gaza and neighboring countries
- Cooperation was working: both Palestinians and Israel were gaining economically. Hatred and mutual suspicion were also decreasing
- Israel's intelligence thought that threats had decreased because of improved living conditions and relations
And there lay the mistake.
Threats had indeed decreased, but only with those who gained from the cooperation, and from the general population.
They had not decreased from the fringes most likely to carry out attacks: the extremists.
Because when you make more space for peace and cooperation, who loses?
When you make more space for peace and cooperation the extremists who are invested in hatred and war lose.
The barbarians invested their lives and egos into hatred and war.
Their power and their very reason of existing depends on hatred and war.
If Israel is not an enemy anymore, nobody would vote for or support Hamas anymore.
A few more enlightened extremists will stop hating when you go from enemy to friend.
But many more will hate even more.
Hamas needed war because Israel's appeasement strategy was working.
That's what the secret service missed: basic power dynamics and psychology.
A better strategy:
pursue cooperation while increasing surveillance and operations against Hamas.
The, once you squash the extremists -or simply when they die out because time is on your side-, everyone wins.
Thanks Lucio!
I think your post exemplifies strategic thinking.
Yes, when we don't have enough information sometime we can miss some group's/people's interest. Then it's difficult to understand the dynamics. The way you put it (with the reservations you emitted) shows that one needs to know the interests and goals to understand the dynamics.
After having watched John Mearsheimer's video one could wonder if it was also a matter of survival from Hamas which triggered the attack. So it seems that Hamas' (political and material) self-preservation was at stake reading your post.
I hope I'm not paraphrasing here.
Agreed, and that raises a question -
Where do terrorists come from?
Although I don't know much, I assume the typical profile for crime and terrorism holds true - the disenfranchised, the young, the outcast and isolated in society, along with the most religious and those the previous target of Israeli attacks, are most likely to join Hamas.
So how can we cut off their supply? Introduce cross-religious initiatives, finance more productive activities and college for the young and bring in psychologists and doctors to help war-torn and traumatized civilians. Basic Bread and Circuses.
Meanwhile, like you said, increase surveillance and operations against Hamas, while fortifying nearby towns (but letting them come in after background checks at the same time) and also fighting them in the political arena - supporting rival political parties and introducing propaganda (while letting them have greater political influence - after checked of course - in Israel as well) backed up by genuine good will.
Overall, the war is of great interest to me, and there are many things that could have been done to prevent this. Violence, sadly, was entirely predictable, but as the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20; there are many more variables involved than any of us can see. If only more political leaders read this site, the world would be a much better place.
Very interesting analysis. Here is a short excerpt from an article 15 days BEFORE the attack.
"For Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, it would be a coup of the century: the Jewish democracy and the Sunni desert monarchy are inching closer to a historic agreement to normalize their relations, according to U.S. reports."
I think, as you also said, that Israel's policy of reconciliation, not only with the Palestinians but throughout the Middle East, has triggered this attack.
